Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $298,292$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(707 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,278,785.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 156.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,278,785.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,346$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(66 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,598.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,598.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $147,667$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,979$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(542 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.3\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(4.58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $180$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,930$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,924.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102,924.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,008$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,435.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,435.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,378$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,575.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 119.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,575.4\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.79 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 74.4)}}\) (asimptote \(88.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,135$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(338 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,168.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,168.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $190$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(12.5 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{385.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.5)}}\) (asimptote \(385.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,997$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,722$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(42.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,931.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 122.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,931.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(0.313 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $931$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,518$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(53.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,795.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 85.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,795.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $147$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(141.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,707$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,216$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,625.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26,625.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,028$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(199 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,060.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,060.6\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,893$ on 2020-07-14