Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $298,292$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(707 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,278,785.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 156.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,278,785.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,346$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(66 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,598.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,598.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $147,667$ on 2020-07-14

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,979$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(542 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-07-14

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,930$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,924.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102,924.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,008$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,435.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,435.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,378$ on 2020-07-14

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,575.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 119.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,575.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.79 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 74.4)}}\) (asimptote \(88.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-14

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,135$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(338 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,168.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,168.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $190$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(12.5 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{385.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.5)}}\) (asimptote \(385.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,997$ on 2020-07-14

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,722$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(42.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,931.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 122.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,931.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(0.313 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $931$ on 2020-07-14

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,518$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(53.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,795.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 85.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,795.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $147$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(141.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,707$ on 2020-07-14

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,216$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,625.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26,625.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,028$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(199 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,060.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,060.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,893$ on 2020-07-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 92%
Uganda recovered 90%
Ghana recovered 56%
Morocco recovered 44%
Mali recovered 19%
Somalia recovered 18%
Sudan recovered 12%

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(80.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,074.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,074.1\)) 
Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-14

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,988$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(973 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,180.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 114.2)}}\) (asimptote \(51,180.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $139$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.78 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{370.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 121.7)}}\) (asimptote \(370.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,782$ on 2020-07-14

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,097$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,398.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 100.0)}}\) (asimptote \(23,398.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $257$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(94.6 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(217.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,398$ on 2020-07-14

Mali⮸

Population $20,250,833$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,423$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(293 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,677.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,677.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(19.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(127.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $554$ on 2020-07-14